Europe Hit a Record as Nasdaq Futures Fell
The STOXX Europe 600 reached an intraday record after Hong Kong sold off and Tokyo’s two main stock indexes finished on opposite sides of zero. U.S. chipmakers were already trading in both directions before the opening bell, while treasurers returned from Veterans Day to a 4.99% U.S. 10-year yield and a $25 billion sale of 30-year bonds later today.
Ionfi Morning Treasury Pulse™
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.26% as Chinese technology companies that use Nvidia chips came under pressure. In Tokyo, the Nikkei lost 0.70%, the broader TOPIX gained 0.20%, and the yen strengthened as USD/JPY fell 0.12% to 159.60. That currency move made a dollar invoice a little cheaper for a Tokyo buyer and a yen invoice a little more expensive for a U.S. buyer. Europe had its own news to trade. Britain’s economy grew 0.7% in the third quarter after 0.5% in the second, Burberry gained more than 6% after reporting results, and stronger earnings helped lift the STOXX Europe 600 past its August high. The euro edged up to $1.1092, sterling eased to $1.3269, and the dollar slipped to CHF 0.8320.
In the U.S. premarket, Nvidia fell about 6% on reports that its board was weighing CEO Jensen Huang’s future. CoreWeave also lost about 6%, while AMD and Broadcom each gained more than 3%. Nasdaq-100 futures fell 0.86% and S&P 500 futures slipped 0.43%, yet Dow futures gave up just four points. Cash Treasury trading resumed with the 5.00% 10-year note at 100.05 to yield 4.99% and the 30-year bond yielding 5.34% ahead of auction. WTI eased to $85.84 a barrel, Brent to $92.13, and COMEX gold to $3,950.20 an ounce. Bitcoin traded at $73,017 and Ethereum at $2,026.43, both lower over 24 hours. Tether held near $1.00 and Dogecoin traded at $0.067.
In Mexico, September industrial output fell 1.4% from August as construction and manufacturing weakened. At the desk’s USD/MXN reference of 18.672, a $100,000 supplier payment costs MXN 1,867,200 before fees. The dollar also strengthened to 5.5874 Brazilian reais and 986.75 Chilean pesos. Banco do Brasil’s overnight results gave suppliers a reason to look more closely at their collections. The bank reported that 6.92% of its agribusiness loans were more than 90 days overdue, up from 4.84% a year earlier. If a farm customer’s receipt is funding Friday’s dollar payment, I’d check when that customer’s last three invoices actually cleared.
Ionfi Market Snapshot & Signal Grid™
Today’s Market Theme
Nasdaq-100 futures fell twice as much as S&P 500 futures, while Dow futures slipped just four points. Before I read that as a warning about U.S. demand, I’d want to see whether banks, retailers and industrials follow Nvidia lower after the open.
Morning observations were taken at different times. U.S. equity closes are from Wednesday, futures changes are measured against prior settlement, and digital-asset changes cover 24 hours where available.
U.S. Equity Futures
|
December contract |
Premarket level |
Change |
|---|---|---|
|
Dow Jones E-mini |
52,574.00 |
−4.00 points |
|
S&P 500 E-mini |
7,608.00 |
−32.50 points · −0.43% |
|
Nasdaq-100 E-mini |
28,227.75 |
−0.86% |
The VIX stood at 18.34 at 7:10 a.m. ET. That was 0.85 point above Wednesday’s 17.49 close.
Global Equities
|
Index |
Level |
Change |
Reference session |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Dow Jones Industrial Average |
52,486.49 |
+0.49% |
Wednesday close |
|
S&P 500 |
7,619.38 |
+1.31% |
Wednesday close |
|
Nasdaq Composite |
25,466.19 |
+1.60% |
Wednesday close |
|
Russell 2000 |
2,846.26 |
+0.88% |
Wednesday close |
|
Japan · Nikkei 225 |
60,819.36 |
−0.70% |
Thursday close |
|
Japan · TOPIX |
3,937.33 |
+0.20% |
Thursday close |
|
Hong Kong · Hang Seng |
24,008.55 |
−1.26% |
Thursday close |
|
China · CSI 300 |
4,043.93 |
−0.78% |
Thursday close |
|
United Kingdom · FTSE 100 |
10,871.28 |
+0.33% |
European morning |
|
Germany · DAX |
26,870.07 |
+0.78% |
European morning |
U.S. Treasuries
|
Maturity |
Displayed coupon |
Price per $100 face value |
Yield |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2-year |
4.63% |
99.76 |
4.76% |
|
5-year |
4.75% |
99.64 |
4.83% |
|
10-year |
5.00% |
100.05 |
4.99% |
|
30-year |
5.13% |
96.78 |
5.34% |
Energy & Precious Metals
|
Instrument |
Morning level |
Change |
|---|---|---|
|
WTI crude futures |
$85.84/barrel |
−0.80% |
|
Brent crude futures |
$92.13/barrel |
−0.68% |
|
COMEX gold futures |
$3,950.20/troy oz |
−1.26% |
|
COMEX silver futures |
$50.94/troy oz |
−2.05% |
Major Currencies
|
Pair |
Morning level |
Morning move |
|---|---|---|
|
EUR/USD |
1.1092 |
Euro up 0.02% |
|
USD/JPY |
159.60 |
Dollar down 0.12% · yen firmer |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3269 |
Sterling down 0.05% |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8320 |
Dollar down 0.13% · franc firmer |
|
USD/CAD |
1.4250 |
Dollar down 0.01% |
Mexico & Latin America
|
Market |
Morning reference |
Treasury signal |
|---|---|---|
|
Mexico · USD/MXN |
18.672 |
Ionfi desk reference for peso-funded dollar payments |
|
Brazil · USD/BRL |
5.5874 |
Dollar up 0.41% |
|
Brazil · 10-year government yield |
15.10% |
Up 3 basis points. October inflation slowed to 0.14% for the month, while annual inflation edged up to 4.63%. |
|
Chile · USD/CLP |
986.75 |
Dollar up 0.24% |
|
Peru · policy rate |
4.25% |
Rate entering Thursday’s central bank decision |
Digital Assets
|
Asset |
U.S. dollar reference |
24-hour move |
|---|---|---|
|
Bitcoin |
$73,017.00 |
−1.21% |
|
Ethereum |
$2,026.43 |
−1.34% |
|
Tether |
$1.00 |
−0.029% |
|
Dogecoin |
$0.067 |
Unavailable |
Ionfi | CIO — What to Watch Into the Close™
8:30 a.m. ET · Jobless claims and the dollar. The two-year Treasury yielded 4.76% before the release. Watch whether any move in that yield carries through to USD/JPY and USD/MXN before pricing a dollar payment.
After the opening bell · Equity participation. Compare the equal-weight S&P 500 with the headline index. If the average stock holds up while the largest chip names pull the index lower, the premarket decline will have overstated how widely the selling spread.
1:00 p.m. ET · The 30-year Treasury auction. Compare the auction yield with where the new bond trades just before bidding closes. A CFO receiving a revised financing quote this afternoon can then ask the lender how much of the change came from the Treasury benchmark and how much came from the credit spread.
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This Pulse provides general market commentary. Market levels are indicative, may be delayed and may differ from executable quotes. Nothing in this publication constitutes investment, legal or tax advice or an offer to transact. FX and digital assets carry risk. Service availability, pricing and settlement depend on eligibility, compliance review, partner availability and applicable terms.