Who’s Putting Up the Money for AI?

Nasdaq-100 futures rose 1.92% after CoreWeave said it expects roughly $9 billion in customer prepayments and deposits over the next three months. Across the Pacific, chipmaker TSMC authorized up to $1 billion in investments in Anthropic and OpenAI, giving investors two distinct ways to look at who is financing the AI buildout.

 

 

 

Ionfi Morning Treasury Pulse™

 

 

CoreWeave’s quarterly net interest expense was more than four times its operating income. That’s the comparison I’d bring to a credit meeting. The AI cloud provider recorded $846 million in net interest expense against $207 million in operating income. With customer deposits expected over the next three months, my first question would be how much equipment the company has to pay for before that money arrives. CoreWeave shares gained about 13% in early trading, IREN rose 8% and Astera Labs added 7%. TSMC’s board took a different route into the same industry. It authorized up to $500 million for Anthropic common shares at the IPO price and up to $500 million for OpenAI preferred shares. 

 

Technology shares rebounded overnight. Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.31%, European chipmakers advanced and Nasdaq-100 futures reached 28,370.75, while Dow futures gained just 80 points. The cost of financing the buildout was still visible in Tuesday’s Treasury auction, where buyers took $42 billion of ten-year notes at 5.020% after October’s U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4% for the month and core prices rose 0.3%. With the U.S. cash bond market closed for Veterans Day, the new 5.00% note showed a reference price of 100.06 and a yield of 4.99%. The thirty-year reference yield was 5.35%. In currency markets, the euro traded at $1.1136 and sterling at $1.3315, while the dollar reached 159.10 yen and 0.8292 Swiss francs. Renewed concern over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz helped lift WTI to $86.69 a barrel, with Brent at $92.74. COMEX gold rose to $4,059.40 an ounce, while Bitcoin and Ether were softer at $73,965 and $2,056.71. 

 

In Mexico, the peso edged higher to 18.5988 per dollar ahead of Friday’s start to El Buen Fin, the national shopping event. BBVA México is offering registered cardholders the option to defer their first payment on qualifying purchases of at least MXN 3,500 until March 2027. A merchant budgeting for the weekend needs a different date from the one on the shopper’s statement: the day its card processor will credit the sale. Brazil’s payment data offered another view of the consumer. Cielo’s October retail sales index rose 1.3% from a year earlier in nominal terms but fell 4.0% after inflation. The dollar also gained 1.46% against the real on Tuesday, closing at 5.5863 reais. A Brazilian distributor could be collecting more reais at the register while selling less merchandise and facing a higher cost to replace imported stock. 

 

 

 

Ionfi Market Snapshot & Signal Grid™

 

 

Today’s Market Theme

 

The gap between Nasdaq-100 and Dow futures was 1.77 percentage points before the open. With the U.S. cash bond market observing Veterans Day, the clearest test during Wednesday’s equity session will be whether the advance spreads beyond AI suppliers. 

 

U.S. Equity Futures

The VIX closed Tuesday at 19.46, down 0.46 point from Monday. The NYSE and Nasdaq are open today for their regular session, from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. 

 

Global Equities

 

U.S. Treasuries

These are holiday screen references. Treasury bill yields were 4.21% at three months, 4.40% at six months and 4.53% at one year. Treasury’s next long-bond auction is Thursday at 1:00 p.m. ET, when it offers $25 billion of thirty-year bonds. 

 

Energy & Precious Metals

 

Major Currencies

 

Mexico & Latin America

 

Digital Assets

 

 

Ionfi | CIO — What to Watch Into the Close™

 

• How far does the rally travel? Compare the equal-weight S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 with the Nasdaq-100 at the close. Gains in both would show that buyers found opportunities beyond the companies supplying AI infrastructure. 

• Which purchases come due first? For a business expanding against customer commitments, put the equipment payment schedule beside the expected deposit dates. The largest gap between the two tells the credit team how much additional funding the business may need, even with a full order book. 

• When can the beneficiary use the funds? Federal Reserve Banks, most U.S. bank branches and post offices are closed today. For a peso payment due today, confirm available local funds and the receiving bank’s cutoff. Fedwire Funds opens at 9:00 p.m. ET tonight for Thursday’s business date. 

 

What Value Date Can You Confirm Today?

 

Send Ionfi the currency pair, amount and beneficiary deadline. Our team can check the available payment route and confirm the value date with our partners. 

 

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